mpc.theyserveforyou.com

mpc: 9 A33 According to the Federation of Recruitment and Employment Services (FRES) survey of recruitment agencies, staff shortages had continued to intensify in November. The Bank's regional Agents had also reported evidence of rising shortages of both skilled and unskilled staff, particularly in the South. A34 The headline measure of annual growth in average earnings per head, a three-month moving average, had fallen from 4.9% in August to 4.7% in September. Within the total, the service sector headline measure had fallen by 0.4 percentage points to 5.0%, while the manufacturing measure had risen 0.3 percentage points to 4.0%. The Reward index had risen by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5% in October. According to the FRES survey, there had been little change in the rate of earnings growth of either permanent or temporary staff in November. A35 There had been little new information on settlements. The Bank's AEI-weighted twelve-month mean settlement had remained at 3.5% in October. Further details had become available on the proposed three-year deal at Ford. It had been reported that the first year would combine a pay increase of 4.0% with a cut in basic hours worked. This would be above the average rate of recent manufacturing settlements in the Bank's database. A36 Historically, much of the variation in nominal earnings growth had reflected changes in inflation expectations. The latest data had suggested that real average earnings growth, after adjustment for the surveyed inflation expectations of trade union leaders, might have levelled off at around 2%.

V

Prices

A37 The Bank's oil-inclusive commodity price index had fallen by 1.0% in October, taking the annual inflation rate from 13.2% to 12.9%. The monthly fall had reflected price falls in crude oil and all the other major components of the index. The non-oil index had fallen by 1.3% in October, but had risen by 1.5% on a year earlier. Metal prices had fallen for the first time since June, and domestic food price inflation had remained weak. A38 Seasonally adjusted manufacturing input prices had fallen by 0.1% in October, but the annual inflation rate had increased to 6.3% from 5.8%. The latest CIPS manufacturing survey