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mpc: 7 A25 The latest survey-based estimate produced by Bank staff had suggested GDP growth of 0.8%-0.9% in Q4. The estimate of three-month on three-month GDP growth produced by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research had been 0.9% in October and projected to be 0.8% in November. Turning to the individual surveys, the output expectations balance in the CBI Monthly Trends survey had fallen back a little to +6 in November from +12 in October. The total orders balance had been above its average at -16, but export order books had been at ­33, below their long run average. The October CBI Industrial Trends survey had shown that manufacturing investment intentions had weakened as the balance of expected capital expenditure on plant and machinery had fallen to ­11 in Q3 from ­8 in Q2, well below the long-run average. A26 The headline index of the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) manufacturing survey had risen slightly to 54.2 in November. The output index had been 57.4, above the no-change value of 50 for the ninth consecutive month, and the highest level since February 1997. The survey had suggested rather less buoyant export growth than the official data, with the index at 53.1. Stocks of finished goods had fallen in November, after rising in October for the first time since July 1998. The CIPS services survey had strengthened to 59.5 in November, the highest level since June 1997, with business activity rising throughout the sector. The CIPS construction index had also been strong at 57.5 in November, with housing and commercial orders remaining robust. But construction new orders had fallen by 5% in the three months to September compared with the previous three months, and had been 16% below their level in the same period in 1998. A27 In its latest Pre-Budget Report, published on 9 November, HM Treasury had revised down its forecast of Public Sector Net Borrowing in 1999/00 by around £6 billion. Forecast receipts had been revised upwards, reflecting an improved cyclical outlook. Projections for total public sector spending out to 2001/02 had been little changed, although a £0.7 billion underspend in 1998/99 had been carried forward into 1999/00. A28 The Chancellor had announced that the automatic road fuel and tobacco duty escalators would no longer be applied: decisions on any real increases in these duties would be made by the Chancellor in subsequent Budgets. Removing the escalators from the fiscal projections had reduced projected receipts by £1 ¼ billion in 2000/01, rising to £6 billion in 2003/04.