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mpc: 6 A21 The Bank's regional Agents had conducted a survey of their contacts to help assess the nature of the export recovery. A sample of mostly manufacturing firms with export-related business had been selected. Of the 121 firms responding to the survey, slightly more than half had indicated that their export volumes had not grown over the past six months. Demand had been reported to be strongest in North America, followed by Asia and other markets. Europe remained the weakest market, but had been recovering slowly. A large number of exporters to Europe had noted that lower profit margins had been a factor affecting export volumes in the past six months. A22 On the assumption that the exchange rate remained unchanged, the expected growth in export volumes over the next six months had varied across regions. Around 40% of respondents exporting to Europe expected volumes to fall, with an additional 30% expecting growth to slow but remain positive. Those exporting to regions outside Europe had been more optimistic, with around three-quarters expecting positive export growth. A23 Turning to indicators of Q4 activity, manufacturing output had risen by 0.1% in October and retail sales volumes had risen by 0.5%. Retail sales volumes had grown by 1.2% in the three months to October compared with the previous three months, and by 4% compared with a year earlier. Growth in retail sales volumes had continued to exceed that of retail sales values. The CBI Distributive Trades survey had shown a balance of +24 respondents reporting higher activity in November, and further growth had been expected in December. The MORI measure of consumer confidence had risen to +4 in November, but the GfK confidence index (which was less volatile and had a bigger sample) had fallen to ­1.5. A24 Housing data had been mixed in November, with the Halifax house price index falling by 0.5%, but the Nationwide measure rising by 1.9%. Indicators of housing activity had also been mixed, but generally pointed to continued high levels of activity. Particulars delivered had risen by 4.1% in October and had been 17.4% up on a year earlier. But the seasonally adjusted net balance of respondents reporting an increase in net reservations compared to a year ago had fallen to +29 in the October House Builders' Federation survey, from +45 in September. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors seasonally adjusted sales balance had remained high at +32. Private housing starts had risen by 4.5% in the three months to October compared to the previous three months, and by 9.0% compared to a year earlier.