mpc:
5
A16 The expenditure breakdown of GDP had shown domestic demand growing by 0.7% in
Q3. Changes in inventories had contributed 0.2 percentage points to growth, so final domestic
demand had grown by 0.5%.
A17 Private consumption had grown by 0.6% in 1999 Q3, and annual growth had been 4.4%.
This had been stronger than expected at the time of the November
Inflation Report, partly
because of an unexpectedly small fall in vehicle expenditure. The seasonal pattern of vehicle
expenditure in 1999 had been affected by the change in registration dates for new cars. The ONS
had included an estimate of the size of this seasonal shift in their estimate of total Q3 spending.
But a similar adjustment had not yet been made to Q1 or Q2 in light of the latest data. Total new
car registrations over the first eleven months of the year had been 1.8% lower than a year earlier.
A complete breakdown of consumption growth had not yet been published, but retail sales had
grown by 1.2% in Q3. Government consumption had risen by 0.5% in Q3, down from 0.6% in
Q2.
A18 Total investment had grown by 0.2% in Q3. Business investment had fallen by 1.3%,
though it had remained 4.3% higher than a year earlier. Within this, manufacturing investment
had fallen by 5.2% in Q3, and service sector investment had fallen by 0.6%. The fall in business
investment had been puzzling, but the investment data had tended to be revised upwards in recent
years. The gross operating surplus of corporations had risen by 2.3% in Q2, and the annual rate
of decline had moderated to -5.0%.
A19 Inventories had made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3, reflecting a slowdown
in the pace of decline. Including the alignment adjustment, inventories had fallen by £0.7 billion
in Q3, compared with a fall of £1.2 billion in Q2. The CBI monthly survey in November had
reported that manufacturers still perceived their stocks to be more than adequate.
A20 Net trade had contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3, the second
consecutive positive quarterly contribution. Total exports of goods and services had grown by
6.2%, and imports had grown by 4.9%. The rise in goods exports had been more broadly based
than in Q2, with exports to non-EU countries growing by 10.1% and exports to the EU rising by
7.0%.
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