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ANNEX: SUMMARY OF DATA PRESENTED BY BANK STAFF

A1 This Annex summarises the analysis presented by the Bank staff to the Monetary Policy Committee on 3 December, in advance of its meeting on 8-9 December 1999. At the start of the Committee meeting itself, members were made aware of information that had subsequently become available, and that information is included in this Annex.

I

The international environment

A2 Growth in the United States in Q3 had been stronger than expected, but GDP had fallen in Japan, and there had been a mixed picture in the euro area, with activity stronger in France than in Germany. The latest data from the US and Japan had suggested that growth in gross trade volumes had remained at relatively high levels, though might have fallen back slightly in recent months. Oil prices had risen again in November, reflecting stronger global demand prospects, high compliance rates with the agreement among OPEC members to limit supply, and lower oil stocks in OECD countries. World food prices had fallen. A3 US GDP growth in Q3 had been revised upwards to 1.4%, largely reflecting higher contributions from net trade and stockbuilding. Annual growth in industrial production had risen to 3.3% in October. Although the index of capacity utilisation in the National Association of Purchasing Managers' survey had been stable over the last year, the survey had been pointing to lengthening delivery times and a rising backlog of orders, consistent with a rather stronger outlook for activity. Consumer confidence had risen in November, on the back of strong income expectations. Unemployment had continued to fall, reaching 4.1% in October, and had remained unchanged in November. Producer prices had fallen by 0.1% in October, reflecting falls in food and energy prices. Annual consumer price inflation had remained unchanged in October, at 2.6%. A4 German GDP had risen by 0.7% in Q3, and growth rates in Q1 and Q2 had been revised upwards. French industrial and consumer confidence indicators had grown by considerably more