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mpc: 10 stage if the economy continued along the path outlined in the published November central projection.In particular, given the latest news on labour market quantities and skill shortages, it was possiblethat the central projection for earnings growth in 2000 made at the time of the November InflationReport was now too low. But there would be more hard evidence on earnings fairly soon as manysettlements were agreed early in the New Year, and the risk of waiting another month or two wouldbe unlikely to give rise to a big policy mistake given the saucer-shaped projection for inflation.There was time to wait and see if signs of earnings and price pressures emerged. There wastherefore no need to change interest rates this month. 32 A third view also led to a conclusion that no change in interest rates was needed this month. Onthis view, the latest indicators were consistent with a slowdown in the rate of growth of domesticdemand and output through the fourth quarter of 1999 and beyond, and the short-term profile forinflation was at least as weak as in the central projection in the Inflation Report. The exchange ratehad appreciated compared with the central assumption, and was closest to the constant exchange rateprofile described in the November Inflation Report (see pages 48 and 58). A higher exchange ratewould put more downward pressure on prices than implied by the November central projection. Onthis view it was prudent to wait and gauge the impact of the two previous increases in interest ratessince the summer, and to see whether there would be a further intensification of competitivepressures. A rise in interest rates now would risk pushing inflation further below the target. 33 The Governor invited members to vote on the proposition that the Bank's repo rate be maintainedat 5.5%. Six members of the Committee (the Governor, David Clementi, Charles Goodhart,DeAnne Julius, Ian Plenderleith and Sushil Wadhwani) voted for the proposition. Mervyn King,Willem Buiter and John Vickers voted against, preferring a rise in rates of 25 basis points. 34 The following members of the Committee were present: Eddie George, GovernorMervyn King, Deputy Governor responsible for monetary policyDavid Clementi, Deputy Governor responsible for financial stabilityWillem BuiterCharles GoodhartDeAnne JuliusIan PlenderleithJohn VickersSushil Wadhwani Gus O'Donnell was also present as the Treasury representative.


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