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mpc: 4 to spend on millennium-related celebrations. Even in the latter case, the effects might only betemporary if spending was transferred from other months. It might have no effect on aggregatespending if it reflected a shift from other types of spending to more cash-based items. In any event,it seemed unclear why households should withdraw substantial balances in November, so far fromthe year-end. There was no anecdotal evidence to support a large effect. Although there was a linkbetween retail sales and narrow money, it had not been particularly close from month to monthrecently. There was, however, a risk that higher money balances would eventually feed through toconsumption, even if the balances were not spent immediately. There was a range of views on howmuch weight to attach to the risk of higher spending. For some, the risk was mitigated by the factthat the large monthly increase came just before the year end, when interpretation ofmonth-on-month changes was usually difficult and was made more so by any potentialmillennium-related effects. 12 Asset prices had risen in the UK and overseas. The FTSE 100 had risen by 5% over the pastmonth and the FTSE All-Share index was now more than 6% up, and over 9% above the fifteen dayaverage used as the starting assumption in the November Inflation Report projections. There hadbeen rises in Japan, continental Europe and the United States too. The FT Small-Capitalisation indexhad outperformed the FTSE 100 index over the past month. Some of the rise in share price indiceswas accounted for by high-tech IT stocks, but this did not account for the entire rise. Nor was it clearthat the rise in IT stocks should be excluded in any event, because it was necessary to look at theaggregate. However, fluctuations in these stocks might be contributing to greater volatility. The risein indices both here and abroad seemed broadly consistent with a general rise in market confidenceabout the strength of world activity. 13 For the UK the rise in equity wealth, coupled with the strength of borrowing for consumption,suggested a robust outlook for consumption growth. House prices had again been volatile, with theNationwide index recording a strong rise on the month, while the Halifax index had fallen. Annualpercentage rates of increase in house prices, and hence gross housing wealth, were in double digits,and many short-run growth rates were at least as fast as the annual rates. Activity indicators in thehousing market had been mixed over the month, but on balance showed activity broadly stable overthe past few months and stronger than at the beginning of the year. The staff's provisional estimateof the increase in mortgage equity withdrawal in the third quarter, though well below the levels ofthe late 1980s as a share of personal income, was quite marked, and appeared to be closely correlatedwith recent growth rates in household consumption spending.