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mpc: 3 was to be expected given the movements in sterling against the euro compared with the dollar.Overall, the export picture in the survey seemed weaker than that suggested by recent official data. 9 On output, the latest estimate of GDP growth in Q3 was still in line with the 0.9% first estimateavailable at the time of the November Report. The latest manufacturing data showed a slight upwardrevision to Q3, although growth in October had been lower than the average monthly rate in Q3. TheCBI Industrial Trends survey for November recorded a positive balance for output expectations,though less positive than in October. The latest construction survey indicators also seemed quitebuoyant, more so than the official data on new orders. The monthly CIPS services survey had showna marked increase in the activity index. This index looked particularly strong when compared withthe average since the survey began in 1996, which itself reflected a period of strong service sectoroutput growth. The latest CBI/Deloitte & Touche survey however pointed to some recent weakeningof consumer services volumes. There were some suggestions that the latest rise in the CIPS surveymight be millennium-related rather than a more sustained acceleration in service sector activity.There was however little evidence from the Bank's regional Agents of strong millennium-relatedeffects on demand or output, apart from the possible pause in IT investment noted above and someisolated examples of increasing inventories. The latest National Institute of Economic and SocialResearch projection of GDP growth in the three months to November was 0.8%, down slightly onthe outturn for October. The staff's latest survey-based estimate of GDP growth in Q4 was broadlyat the same rate as in the third quarter, but higher than in November's central projection. 10 Overall there was not much evidence, on balance, that demand and output were turning outdifferently from what had been expected in November. If anything, the risks were of slightlystronger outturns in Q4 than thought a month ago.

Money, credit and asset prices

11 Broad money growth, excluding Other Financial Corporations, remained fairly stable. The moststriking monetary indicator over the past month had been the marked increase in narrow money inNovember. Notes and coin were growing at the fastest annual rate since 1980, with a particularlyrapid rise in November. The seasonal adjustment updated the seasonal factors each month using athree-year window. This meant that one third of the rapid increase in November had already beenattributed as a seasonal effect ­ the headline increase was even larger than the seasonally adjustedfigures suggested. The staff had tried to make allowance for the possible effects of the millenniumand the Government's Winter Allowance, but it seemed likely to explain only part of the totalincrease in November, though there was great uncertainty over the magnitude of these effects. Anincrease in money balances ahead of the year-end might occur for several reasons. For example, itmight be precautionary on account of concerns about computer-related Y2K problems, or it might be