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mpc: 11 A52 Market participants had continued to comment that movements in US equities were an influence on the dollar's exchange rate against sterling and other currencies. There had been some evidence of a greater correlation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and dollar exchange rates, including that between the dollar and sterling. However, the wider implications for sterling's effective exchange rate had been less clear. A53 The difference between interest rates implied by futures and economists' interest rate forecasts had widened over the three months to October. This was more likely to be related to increased risk- aversion, the unwinding of long-standing trading positions and mortgage-related swap market activity, rather than a genuine difference of view between traders and economists. In terms of the immediate rate decision, market commentators on balance attached a high probability to a 25 basis point increase in the Bank's repo rate but did not expect changes in rates in December or January.