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mpc: 5 A21 Construction new orders had fallen by 5.0% in the three months to September but the CIPS index of construction activity had indicated strong growth since January 1999. A22 Retail sales volumes had risen by 0.1% in September. Growth in Q3 had been 1.2%. The GfK consumer confidence index had been flat in October, but remained above its historical average. The new quarterly Consumers' Association Consumer Trends Survey consumer confidence index had been +34 in October, compared with +33 in July. According to this survey, households expected house prices to rise by 4% over the next year. A23 Both the Halifax and Nationwide house price indices had shown rises in annual house price inflation in October, to 10.8% and 11.6% respectively. The Halifax index had grown particularly sharply in October, rising by 2.8%, following zero growth in September. Particulars delivered had fallen to 122,000 in September - the second consecutive monthly fall - but remained 7% higher than a year earlier. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey had shown a similar picture of housing transactions. Housing starts had risen by 2.9% in Q3. A24 Vehicle sales had been very volatile, given the change to the registration letter system. Private car registrations in Q3 had fallen by 16.6% on a year earlier. In the first 9 months of 1999, they had been 0.8% lower than the same period a year earlier. A25 The change in inventories had contributed negatively to GDP growth in Q2. The CIPS survey of manufacturing had shown that stocks of finished goods had risen in October for the first time since July 1998. The CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey had shown that the balance of finished goods inventories had risen to -10 in October from -20 in July. A26 The BCC and CBI surveys had shown a pick-up of manufacturing investment intentions in Q3 compared to very low levels a year ago, though the CBI measure had fallen slightly to -11 in Q3 from -8 in Q2. The BCC survey had shown an increase in investment intentions (plant and machinery), to 11 in Q3 from 3 in Q2. But as investment intentions are forward-looking it seemed likely that actual investment would not strengthen until 2000. A27 The public sector net cash requirement had been £2.0 billion in September - with cumulative cash borrowing for 1999/2000 similar to the previous year.