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mpc: 2 unemployment had fallen to 4.6% in September, although this had partly reflected a fall in the participation rate. The consumer price index had fallen by 0.2% in the year to September. A6 Trade volumes had risen in the United States, Japan and the euro area. Non-oil commodity prices had remained stable. Oil prices had fallen very slightly, despite the most recently available evidence suggesting a higher degree of compliance among OPEC members with the agreement to limit supply. However, the continued strength in oil prices had contributed to an increase in petrol and producer prices in all countries. A7 There had been little movement in the main dollar, yen and euro exchange rates. Equity markets in the main economies had recovered slightly from falls earlier in the month. There had been a further increase in euro-area interest rates implied by Euribor futures contracts, with markets expecting around 50 basis points of tightening by next summer. A8 The trend in industrial production growth in most emerging market economies had been positive. It had remained negative in Latin America.

II Monetary and financial conditions

A9 Provisional figures had suggested that narrow money growth had rebounded in October. The one- month growth rate of notes and coin had risen to 0.8%, compared with an upwardly revised 0.1% in September. The twelve-month growth rate (after adjusting for the introduction of the new 50 pence and £2 coins) had risen to 7.6% in October from 7.0% in September. A10 M4 had fallen by £2.9 billion (0.4%) in September, with the annual growth rate falling back to 2.8%, the lowest since the series began in 1963. M4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had risen by £4.2 billion (0.4%) in September. A11 Households' M4 deposits had risen by 1.3% in Q3. In real terms, households' M4 deposits were estimated to have increased by 4.8% in the twelve months to Q3. And households' real Divisia growth was estimated to have picked up to 5.3%, consistent with strong consumption growth. Households' M4 lending had grown strongly in Q3. Annual growth had been 8.6%, the highest since 1991. Within total lending to individuals, the annual growth rate of secured lending had been 7.5%, reflecting strength in the housing market. Loan approvals had also been strong. Total unsecured lending had